The behaviour of smart money suggests that the Greek crisis is now a mere storm in a tea cup. OK so what is smart money and how do we track it? Well in essence there is no “smart” money, that is, there is no group of players (with consistent members that is) who consistently makes [...]
Posts under ‘Market Overview’
Five Charts to Rule Them All $DJP $IYR $VTI $TLT $UUP
Just a few months ago weakness in the USD resulted in strength in commodities and equities and weakness in US Treasuries. But now all that has changed…….although so it seems! What will happen if the USD Index falls materially lower? Well we think it is quite likely that the correlations between asset classes will once [...]
A Powerful Rally is Underway in Real Estate Stocks $IYR
Judging by the mood of the market buying real estate stocks would have to be up there with the most dumbest of things to do! Yet seemingly against all odds the real estate sector, in its various shapes and forms, is one of the star performers of the stock market this year! What is driving [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $VTI $DJP $TLT $IYR $UUP
Crunch time perhaps? We are coming to a critical juncture in US financial markets and as strange as it may seem it appears that equity markets are leading the way. Equities, as per the Vanguard Total Market Index at least, are in a perfect up trend. In fact small caps as per the Russell 2000 [...]
PIGS Credit Default Swaps Suggest the Storm is Passing $FXE
While everyone is transfixed on the impending “default” by the Greeks and problems of the Portuguese, has anyone noticed that Credit Default Swaps on the PIGS government bonds (and Greece in particular) are lower than were they were trading at on the 1st of February? Could we go so far as to say that the [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $VTI $DJP $IYR $UUP $TLT
It is all too easy these days to get caught up with the short term emotion of the market, perhaps this is still the hangover of the big crash of 2008. We always take time out at the start of each week to ask ourselves the all important question; has there been any fundamental change [...]
Trade Alert – Earnslaw Portfolio
We have updated our Earnslaw portfolio and members should login to view the details.
Since inception in February 2009, our Earsnlaw portfolio has returned 39%.
Also, in making some behind the scenes changes to the site I accidentally restricted access to some posts. whoops!. Sorry about that. All posts are now able to be read by everyone. [...]
Athens Stock Market a Deep Value Investor’s Dream
When it comes to investing and market timing the immortal words of John Templeton ring loudly in our ears;
“The best time to invest is at the point of maximum pessimism”
Just where in the world would the ordinary average investor dare not tread with respect to equity markets? We think that place would be the [...]
The Behaviour of the Junk Bond Market Suggests Equities Remain Bullish $JNK $HYG
If the US economy was contracting wouldn’t there be an increasing number of junk grade bonds entering a distressed condition? Yes that would be a reasonably logical assumption. Then why has there been no increase the level of distressed debt (junk grade issues trading in excess of 1000 basis pts over US treasuries) over the [...]
NYSE Now In a Deep Oversold Condition $SPY $DIA
Just how oversold is the equity market? One of the most reliable indicators we have found is the NYSE 50 day moving average ratio. In essence it is the ratio of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average to below. A ratio below 25% we consider oversold and above 75% overbought. Currently the ratio [...]
