Crunch time perhaps? We are coming to a critical juncture in US financial markets and as strange as it may seem it appears that equity markets are leading the way. Equities, as per the Vanguard Total Market Index at least, are in a perfect up trend. In fact small caps as per the Russell 2000 [...]
Posts under ‘Market Overview’
PIGS Credit Default Swaps Suggest the Storm is Passing $FXE
While everyone is transfixed on the impending “default” by the Greeks and problems of the Portuguese, has anyone noticed that Credit Default Swaps on the PIGS government bonds (and Greece in particular) are lower than were they were trading at on the 1st of February? Could we go so far as to say that the [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $VTI $DJP $IYR $UUP $TLT
It is all too easy these days to get caught up with the short term emotion of the market, perhaps this is still the hangover of the big crash of 2008. We always take time out at the start of each week to ask ourselves the all important question; has there been any fundamental change [...]
Trade Alert – Earnslaw Portfolio
We have updated our Earnslaw portfolio and members should login to view the details.
Since inception in February 2009, our Earsnlaw portfolio has returned 39%.
Also, in making some behind the scenes changes to the site I accidentally restricted access to some posts. whoops!. Sorry about that. All posts are now able to be read by everyone. [...]
Athens Stock Market a Deep Value Investor’s Dream
When it comes to investing and market timing the immortal words of John Templeton ring loudly in our ears;
“The best time to invest is at the point of maximum pessimism”
Just where in the world would the ordinary average investor dare not tread with respect to equity markets? We think that place would be the [...]
The Behaviour of the Junk Bond Market Suggests Equities Remain Bullish $JNK $HYG
If the US economy was contracting wouldn’t there be an increasing number of junk grade bonds entering a distressed condition? Yes that would be a reasonably logical assumption. Then why has there been no increase the level of distressed debt (junk grade issues trading in excess of 1000 basis pts over US treasuries) over the [...]
NYSE Now In a Deep Oversold Condition $SPY $DIA
Just how oversold is the equity market? One of the most reliable indicators we have found is the NYSE 50 day moving average ratio. In essence it is the ratio of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average to below. A ratio below 25% we consider oversold and above 75% overbought. Currently the ratio [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $VTI $TLT $DBC $IYR $UUP
Complete mayhem! These two words were the best we could come up with to describe the market’s behaviour last week. Over the last 10 days, especially the last few, we have been watching with interest the rapidly growing bearish consensus with the stock and commodity market and the Euro.
From our years of experience in the [...]
The World’s Strongest Equity Market $RSX
We have always maintained that the best way to understand the mood of any stock market is to look at the behaviour of small caps. Small caps have a wonderful tendency to trend with relatively little volatility which makes depicting the true trend of the market considerably easier. Furthermore, due to their relative lack [...]
Distressed Corporate Bonds Remain on the Decrease $JNK $HYG
If the market was “seriously” bearish then shouldn’t more junk rated bonds be entering a stressed condition? Well yes that would be a logical conclusion but it appears that there is no material increase in the number of junk rated bonds trading at more than 1000 basis points above the yield of US [...]
