If one was to take today’s newspapers, television, and financial websites/blogs at face value one could be forgiven for thinking that the end has arrived for Greece and perhaps the end is near for the Eurozone. The media relaying popular opinion would also have us believe that global equity markets, commodities and high yielding currencies [...]
Posts under ‘Market Overview’
Inflationary Forces Continue to Mass $DBC $TIP $IEF $TLT $TBT $GLD
Could it be that “inflationists”, fed up with the big commodity indices (CRB, Rogers, GSCI, & DJ) and US treasuries (10 & 30yr), having more or less gone sideways since June last year, are finally beginning to throw in the towel? To us it seems that way. Perhaps this article from Bloomberg neatly encompasses what we [...]
Smart Money is Beginning to Position for a Bullish Breakout in the Euro $FXE
While the press of popular opinion would have us believe that the Euro is going materially lower, the behaviour of the option market suggests that the Euro may well have already bottomed. Risk reversals have begun to diverge from the behaviour in the price of the Euro.
EURUSD 25 Delta 3 Month Risk Reversal (intraday)
EUR Spot [...]
Where in the World Would John Templeton Be Looking For Value $GRE
It we had to identify our investment style with an investment great it would be John Templeton. While Soros and Buffett continue to steal the limelight and many try to model themselves on what they did or at least are currently doing, few realise that it is exceptionally difficult for the average investor with limited [...]
Two Big Charts Depicting a Pickup in World Trade $SEA
We would like to present two big charts that are rather suggesting for a bullish outlook on global trade and shipping stocks. These charts centre on the costs of shipping cargo and hiring ships. Most people focus on the “infamous” Baltic Dry Index as a means of gauging what is happening on the high seas. [...]
Something Bullish is Building in Utility Stocks $XLU
On first appearances it would appear that Utility stocks (as per the S&P 500 Utility sector and the ETF “XLU”), are dull, boring, unromantic and all those descriptive things! They have gone absolutely no where since October 2008! Talk about a complete waste of time, actually if you compare the performance to the S&P 500 [...]
The Carry Trade is in a Long Term Bull Trend $DBV $PCY $EMB $CEW
Just how “sustainable” is the rally in stocks, commodities (particularly crude), and the breakdown in US treasuries…..and where is gold going……and when? For an answer to that let us look at the currency market. More often than not the behaviour of currency markets precedes that of other asset classes. This behavioural “trait” of world financial [...]
Crude Oil Breaks Out and With it the Inflation Trade $USO $FXA $FXC $FXY $TIP $IEF $TLT
Crude oil closed at a multi-week high in USD, Euro, Yen, and Emerging market currency terms. It also came close to closing at a multi-week high against both the Aussie and Loonie. Something is going on and it seems a lot deeper than just strength in crude oil. Many commodities also closed at multi-week [...]
The CADJPY Suggests that Commodities and Treasuries Will Breakout $FXC $FXY $DBC TLT $TBT
While the plight of the Euro is attracting everyone’s attention as of late you might be missing developments in the so called commodity currencies relative to the Yen. We have found in the past that the CADJPY and AUDJPY more often than not lead the behaviour of the CRB Index (the commodity market) and we [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $VTI $DBC $IYR $UUP $TLT
The five charts below depict more or less all that one needs to know about the behaviour of the five big asset classes. We have a strong upward trend in equities and real estate, inconclusive action in commodity and treasury markets and what appears to be a change in trend (from bullish to bearish) in [...]
