Posts from ‘January, 2010’

So China tightening credit is the ultimate bearish sign for commodities, and commodity stocks! Well that is what the press would have us believe and on the face of it that is what appeared to happen last night. But beneath the scenes this is far from the case. It seems that the smart money isn’t [...]

Evidence suggests that the bullish breakout by shipping stocks is far from being just another lesson in random noise. We approach the investment case for shipping stocks from a number of perspectives, namely the behaviour of;

Shipping (the Lloyds List 50) and shipbuilding stock prices (Bloomberg World Shipbuilding Index)absolutely and relative to the MSCI World Index,

Freight [...]

Mention shipping stocks and one of the first things that comes to mind is the Baltic Dry Index. While the Baltic Dry Index is interesting and useful it is also misleading. This is essentially because of the way in which it is constructed. The BDI is an average of three indices the Capesize, Panamax and [...]

From every conceivable angle that we can measure risk it seems that risk taking is alive and well. Junk grade corporate bonds (JNK & HYG) and emerging market bonds (EMB & PCY) continue to outperform not only US treasuries (IEF) but also other developed market treasuries (BWX) with multi-week highs being registered since mid December. [...]

It seems that the vast majority of economists and analysts are worried about the “record” levels of unemployment and mortgage delinquencies. But should they? Yes by all accounts they are at levels not seen in “modern” history but perhaps these two indicators of the health of the economy are merely lagging indicators and turn down [...]

We have been following the shipping sector for some time now and we cannot help but notice the bullish build up in a number of shipping stocks. Perhaps the smart money has woken up to the extremely cheap valuations of shipping stocks and the strong bottom formation in many counters. Members of the ETF [...]

It seems that the long awaited crack in US Treasuries is opening up before our eyes. For some time now (actually for the last 8 months) we have been bemused as to who would “logically” or “rationally” lend the US Government funds for 30 years and be compensated by less than 4.5% p.a! At that [...]