My goodness! If last week wasn’t bad enough this week was horrid! There just seems to be no escaping the wrath of Mr Market unless of course you were short commodities, equities, and long treasuries and the USD (where have we seen this before). Anyway we have no problem with a pull back in the [...]
Posts from ‘January, 2010’
The Risk Trade is Not Done $JNK $PCY $EMB $HYG $EWX $FXA
My goodness! If last week wasn’t bad enough this week was horrid! There just seems to be no escaping the wrath of Mr Market unless of course you were short commodities, equities, and long treasuries and the USD (where have we seen this before). Anyway we have no problem with a pull back in the [...]
CDS Spreads Suggest the Smart Money Remains Bullish $JNK $HYG $EMB $PCY
If the risk, high yield, carry trade (call it what you will) was in genuine trouble wouldn’t one reasonably expect that the cost of insurance for default be on the rise? That is, Credit Default Swaps should already be trading at multi-week highs for high risk assets such as junk grade debt and emerging market [...]
The Underlying Trend of Commodities $DBC $DJP $RJI $GSG $SLV $GLD $USO
On the face of it commodities appear to be in trouble. The big three; gold, silver and crude are all looking somewhat sick. Needless to say the big commodity ETFs (like DBC, DJP, GSG) are also taking strain. So we can only sympathise with the average investor as he begins entertain bearish views on commodities. [...]
Fundamentals Nor Technicals Change in 5 Days $SPY $IWM $DIA
The essence of a bull trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Just a few days ago equity markets as per narrow definitions (like the Dow) and more broad definitions (like the Value Line) were trading at multi-week highs. Markets looked so bullish that we struggled to find any bearish activity [...]
Five Charts to Rule Them All $SPY $DBC $IYR $UUP $TLT
The seemingly about reversal in world financial markets over the last few weeks has been rather dramatic but has anything changed? We think not. There has been no breach of any technical support/resistance level, furthermore there has not been enough of a lapse of time that would signal a change in underlying fundamentals.
The Value Line [...]
The Weakness in Crude, Gold and Silver is a Classic Trap $USO $SLV $GLD
The behaviour of Crude, Gold and Silver as of late would have the casual observer believe that the whole commodity “story” is under serious threat. However, beneath the scenes nothing could be further from the “truth”.
Real commodity prices, that is spot prices or those for immediate delivery, are only a fractional percentage from their [...]
The Weakness in Crude, Gold and Silver is a Classic Trap $USO $SLV $GLD
The behaviour of Crude, Gold and Silver as of late would have the casual observer believe that the whole commodity “story” is under serious threat. However, beneath the scenes nothing could be further from the “truth”.
Real commodity prices, that is spot prices or those for immediate delivery, are only a fractional percentage from their [...]
The Weakness in Crude, Gold and Silver is a Classic Trap $USO $SLV $GLD
The behaviour of Crude, Gold and Silver as of late would have the casual observer believe that the whole commodity “story” is under serious threat. However, beneath the scenes nothing could be further from the “truth”.
Real commodity prices, that is spot prices or those for immediate delivery, are only a fractional percentage from their [...]
Credit Default Swaps and Junk Bonds Hardly Budged $JNK $PCY
If the market was genuinely bearish we should see material movements in risk indicators such as credit default swaps. Yet they have hardly budged, at least not as much as I thought they would if they were genuinely bearish. From the chart below the uptick in the Corporate CDS Index is nothing out [...]
