Just on the quiet Ethanol futures have broken to multi-week highs after a 12 month old trading range. We are not particularly interested in trading ethanol itself, rather we are interested in the confirming behaviour with respect to the breakout in crude (above $75). If crude were to have broken higher and ethanol didn’t we would be highly suspect of the behaviour of crude but obviously this is not the case. To give weight to the breakout in ethanol is the break higher in Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Corn futures.
It just seems that under every rock we look we find more bullish confirmation for the breakout in the broad commodity indices (CRB, DJAIG, Goldman, & Rogers). Why do we get the feeling that this is the start of something big in commodities?
