The “high yield” and “commodity” trades remain vibrant and strong. Our proprietary risk and commodity indices are at multi-week highs and, with no deterioration in upward momentum; we see little reason to doubt that these trends will continue over the coming weeks.
In previous articles we have clearly outlined the components of our proprietary commodity and risk indices. We doubt anyone will take them seriously and as such have no problem sharing them with others.
The Glenorchy Global Risk Index™
The Glenorchy Commodity Index™
We continue to be surprised at how many punters/investors/commentators continue to pound the deflation trade and everything that goes with it. The market is the ultimate judge and from our interpretation its current behaviour suggests that inflation is coming and is likely to take the majority by surprise! Given that commodities in general (as per the CRB) have gone nowhere for five months and long dated US Treasuries (as per TLT) have actually advanced we hardly think that the commodity/inflation trade is a crowed one.
