It all seems so easy when things go your way but then almost without warning they turn on you with no apparent warning! Anyway getting straight to the point – has anything changed over the last few days to bring into question the rally in commodities and particularly the breakout of the CRB over the [...]
Posts from ‘October, 2009’
The Essence of US Macro Trends in 5 Charts $VTI $GSG $AGG $UUP $IYR
Last week we saw multi-week highs in equity and commodity markets and lows in the USD Index. However, we did not see new highs in fixed income or real estate markets. Perhaps this states the rather obvious but it highlights the fact that there is little credible challenge to the bullish phase in equities, [...]
Ethanol Breaks Higher Confirming Crude Oil $GSG $DBC $GCC $DJP, $RJI $ADM $USO
Just on the quiet Ethanol futures have broken to multi-week highs after a 12 month old trading range. We are not particularly interested in trading ethanol itself, rather we are interested in the confirming behaviour with respect to the breakout in crude (above $75). If crude were to have broken higher and ethanol didn’t [...]
PPI vs. the CRB $DBC $RJI $GSG $DJP $GCC $UCI $SEA
Yesterday PPI came in lower than expected giving an excuse to the deflationists to sell down anything commodity related and plunge blindly into US Treasuries!
We found this behaviour somewhat amusing given the recent behaviour of the CRB (as in the old CRB – now referred to as the CCI)
And also given the behaviour of our [...]
How Long Can 30yr Yields Remain This Low $DBC $TLT $RJI $GSG $DJP $GCC $UDN
Everyone is making a big deal out of the weakness of the USD Index. Quite frankly we think that a weakening USD Index is no big deal. The bigger deal is the breakout in commodity prices in USD terms and the immanent breakout in “non-USD” terms. Few punters are aware that the major commodity indices [...]
US Macro Trend Roundup $IYR $GSG $VTI $AGG $UUP
We think that last week was one of the most important weeks of the year! Equity markets did have a positive week reaching a multi-week high on Thursday but to be honest the week’s gain wasn’t so important. It was the action of commodity markets that were very significant, perhaps not so much in terms [...]
The Perfect Inflationary Storm $DBC $GSG $GCC $UCI $DJP $RJI
A perfect inflationary storm? Over the years we have watched many financial storms develop but few have been as perfect as this. From an inflation perspective this is about as perfect as you can get…..we now have multi-week highs in:
Crude Oil;
Broad based commodity indices;
Inflation protected treasuries vs. non inflation protected;
Commodity currencies vs. the USD, Euro, [...]
Gold Becoming the Strongest Currency in the World $GLD $FXA $TIP
What would signal inflation on a global scale? We think the ultimate test is a breakdown in the value of paper or fait currencies. That is, a strengthening of gold and crude relative to the world’s strongest paper currency which, at this point in time, is the Aussie dollar. If Gold breaks above AUD1180 it [...]
Commodities on the Verge of a Major Breakout $DBC $RJI $DJP $GSG $GCC $UCI
Rarely have we witnessed a time like now when it seems that all the stars are aligned to support a significant move to the upside in commodities. We have approached the “thesis” of a breakout in commodities from a number of perspectives both intra-market and inter-market and we can find no evidence that supports an [...]
Commodities Now at Multi-Week Highs $GSG $GCC $DBC $RJI $DJP $UCI
Many folk will be scratching their heads when we say that commodity markets have broken to multi-week highs. We have always used the “old” CRB Index (now referred to as the CCI index) as our proxy for commodity markets. In essence the old CRB was an equally weighted index of 17 commodities where the price [...]
