Posts from ‘September, 2009’

 
Our concise coffee shop analysis of world financial markets reveals that all the macro trends that began late last year remain well “entrenched”. Last week (click here for the article) we said:

“we are reasonably confident that a new multi-week low will be achieved in the USD Index and we should see meaningful downside in US [...]

 
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.”  – Mark Twain

We wonder if shorters/bearish detractors of Natural Gas futures/UNG/GAZ took time to reflect on the actions over the last 5 weeks, with Natural Gas’s price “implosion” (35% down in 30 days) and subsequent explosion (up 35% in [...]

A number of market participants, arm chair commentators and leading experts alike have been stating that the strength in commodity prices is only really got to do with the weakness of the USD itself and not the inherent strength of commodities themselves. Today we will present two graphs of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index against [...]

Tuesday was a somewhat monumental day for financial markets but it appears that few are taking it seriously. We say monumental because a number of key levels were broken which, to our thinking suggests the next phase is under way because breaches of these key levels confirmed the macro trends that began back in October/November [...]

It would be nice to think that financial markets move in straight lines, but alas they don’t! In fact we feel that it is not healthy for a market to move in a linear fashion because it indicates that too many weak hands have entered the market. The recent melt down of the Chinese [...]

If there is one thing that I have learnt over the last 25 years in trading it is that: almost everything good that happens in the market requires the passage of time. It kind of remains me of a series of cheese adverts that ran in New Zealand in the late 80s/early 90s.

Yes the greatest [...]

We continue to be surprised at the relative lack of bullish commentary on various blog sites that we read and generally within other forms of media. There seems to be a general reluctance to believe in the rally of the equity market and that with any trip that equities make, yes it is normal for [...]

As contrarians we are always scanning the globe for the toxic leftovers of disgruntled long term investors. In particular we are always interested in news that justifies the horrors of what has already happened to an industry. A few days ago Bloomberg ran this story on shipping rates, and by implication the outlook (or lack [...]